Plain Talking Jane

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Head in the Oven and Turning Up the Gas?

Danna Vale’s comments on the Islamic birth rates and abortion drew widespread derision and condemnation last week. Few tested her argument with fact, relying instead on the usual mix of outrage and pejoratives. So what did she really say?

Firstly, that some Imams see the high Islamic birth rate as the path to achieve majority status in Western countries. So Vale’s is right to say that these claims have been made but is the prediction accurate?

Secondly, her source reportedly predicted that Muslim’s will overtake Australia’s infidel population in fifty years? This is almost certainly wrong. Let’s make some generalized basic assumptions rounded up to whole numbers and do some modeling to predict a loosely plausible future. Let’s use 2000 as the base year and apply these very general estimates.

Group ----------------- Population size---------Fertility rate-- Generational span

Aust Islamic:-----------500,000-----------------4-----------------------25 years
Aust Other:------------20,000,000-------------1.5----------------------35 years

In these figures ‘Aust Islamic’ includes all Muslim Australians and ‘Aust Other’ all non Muslim Australians. The fertility rate is the average number of children each female will produce and the generational span is the average time taken to reach the average fertility rate. To model this set of assumptions take the total population, divide it by two (to get the number of women) and multiply that by the fertility rate every generational span. (To get the in between generation figure I estimate how close to the full generation is and apply this percentage).

So what these assumptions tell us is:

Year----------Aust Other --------------Aust Islamic --------------Aust generation
2000---------20,000,000--------------500,000------------------Our generation
2025---------17,000,000--------------1,000,000
2035---------15,000,000--------------1,400,000-----------------Children
2050---------13,500,000--------------2,000,000
2070---------11,250,000--------------3,700,000----------------Grand children
2075---------10,828,120---------------4,000,000
2100----------8,859,375---------------8,000,000
2105---------8,437,500--------------9,200,000----------Great grand child

If we assume current patterns continue our great grandchildren live in a society that is majority Islamic in 100 years. However, these figures are incorrect. I don’t know what the respective fertility rates are, the initial Islamic population in 2000 or the generational span. However the model demonstrates that Danna Vale is wrong, on the time scale at least, and immigration hasn’t yet to be factored in.

If we assume that we take 100,000 immigrants per year we will add 5 million extra people between 2000 and 2050. As the tables below show the make up of the immigration program is the most important factor in determining whether Islam achieves Danna Vale’s prediction in 2050 or after 2150.

So here are some speculative outcomes if we assume that the Islamic percentage of the immigration intake is the only variable in the model.

Islamic immigration at 5% of total immigration program:

Year-----------Aust General--------Aust Islamic---------Total--------% Islamic
2025-----------21,425,000----------700,000---------22,125,000--------3
2050----------18,562,500--------2,600,000---------21,162,500--------12

Islamic immigration at 10% of total immigration program:

Year-----------Aust General--------Aust Islamic---------Total--------% Islamic
2025-----------21,350,000---------900,000------------22,250,000------4
2050----------18,375,000--------3,800,000-----------22,175,000------17

Islamic immigration at 15% of total immigration program:

Year------------Aust General--------Aust Islamic---------Total--------% Islamic
2025------------21,275,000---------1,100,000-----------22,375,000------5
2050-----------18,187,500---------5,000,000-----------23,187,500------22

Islamic immigration at 20% of total immigration program:

Year------------Aust General--------Aust Islamic---------Total--------% Islamic
2025------------21,200,000---------1,300,000-----------22,500,000-------6
2050------------18,000,000---------6,200,000----------24,200,000-------26

The Islamic intake would have to be 60% of all immigrants to achieve Islamic majority by 2050. If 20% of the total immigration intake is Islamic the results is a Muslim majority somewhere around 2075 – I won’t be alive, but my children will be.

Finally are we aborting ourselves into oblivion and will RU486 make things worse? I haven't seen anything to suggest that RU486 increases abortion demand. I would imagine it is a substitute product, and therefore doesn’t add to demand just changes the way existing demand is satisfied.

So Danna Vale is right about the first part of her argument and wrong on the timetable in the second part of her argument. On the third part she is probably wrong about the impact of RU486 but has a point on abortion more generally.

So it probably is in the national interest to reduce the abortion rate amongst non Islamic Australian women, but I doubt passage of the RU486 bill will affect the rate and I doubt abortion should or will become illegal.

The real message for Australia is to understand the religious constitution of the immigration program and its impact on the general population over time. We need a respected demographer, armed with accurate figures, to project the religious impact of our current immigration program into the future. Then we can let the people decide if they are comfortable with the projected outcome.

Nearly everywhere that Muslims are the majority they substantially adjust the constitution to favour Islamic legal concepts if not impose Sharia law. Consequently we need to know now whether we need a referendum or whether the problem is so far into the future it is inherently unnecessary.

Because we are one of the few countries where citizens can change the constiturion through a referendum we are more at risk than most. All the Muslims need to go to Sharia is an overall majority of Australians and a majority in a majority of states. On my simple model a realistic outcome is that our grand children might have Sharia forced on them due to the make up if our current immigration program has more than 15% or so Islamic component. Clearly the Australiancommunity deserves more information so that we can make an informed decision about our future.

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